OPERATING COST CREEP ANALYZER: ILLUSTRATIVE DEFAULT RECORD
OBSERVED PERIODS
Period A activity: 100,000
Period B activity: 120,000
Period A operating cost: $8,000,000
Period B operating cost: $10,200,000
Period A cost per activity unit: $80.00
Period B cost per activity unit: $85.00
Expected Period B cost at Period A rate: $9,600,000
Activity-supported cost movement: +$1,600,000
Cost creep: +$600,000
Net operating cost movement: +$2,200,000
FORWARD COST-RESET ASSUMPTIONS
Period B length: 12 months
End-of-horizon activity growth: 10.0%
Fixed committed cost share: 35.0%
Variable cost inflation: 4.0%
Variable cost-rate reduction: 8.0%
Variable reset starts: M2
Variable reset fully realized by: M5
Fixed cost release: 20.0%
Fixed release starts: M6
Fixed release fully realized by: M8
One-time reset cost: $500,000
Forward horizon: 12 months
FORWARD COST-RESET RESULT
Period B variable cost per activity unit: $55.25
Period B fixed monthly commitment: $297,500
End no-action cost per activity unit: $84.51
End managed cost per activity unit: $74.50
Cumulative variable-rate release: $458,326
Cumulative fixed-cost release: $357,000
Gross operating-cost release: $815,326
One-time reset cost: $500,000
Net operating-cost release: +$315,326
Payback month: M10
OPERATING THRESHOLDS
Minimum variable cost-rate reduction for non-negative in-horizon net release: 2.5%
Latest variable reset start preserving non-negative in-horizon net release: M8
Maximum one-time reset cost preserving non-negative in-horizon value: $815,326
MONTHLY COST PATH
M1: activity 10,083 | no-action cost $856,461 | managed cost $856,461 | gross release $0 | cumulative net release $0
M2: activity 10,167 | no-action cost $862,953 | managed cost $851,644 | gross release $11,309 | cumulative net release −$488,691
M3: activity 10,250 | no-action cost $869,476 | managed cost $846,597 | gross release $22,879 | cumulative net release −$465,812
M4: activity 10,333 | no-action cost $876,029 | managed cost $841,317 | gross release $34,712 | cumulative net release −$431,100
M5: activity 10,417 | no-action cost $882,613 | managed cost $835,804 | gross release $46,809 | cumulative net release −$384,291
M6: activity 10,500 | no-action cost $889,228 | managed cost $822,056 | gross release $67,172 | cumulative net release −$317,120
M7: activity 10,583 | no-action cost $895,873 | managed cost $808,336 | gross release $87,536 | cumulative net release −$229,583
M8: activity 10,667 | no-action cost $902,549 | managed cost $794,645 | gross release $107,904 | cumulative net release −$121,679
M9: activity 10,750 | no-action cost $909,256 | managed cost $800,815 | gross release $108,440 | cumulative net release −$13,239
M10: activity 10,833 | no-action cost $915,993 | managed cost $807,014 | gross release $108,979 | cumulative net release +$95,741
M11: activity 10,917 | no-action cost $922,761 | managed cost $813,240 | gross release $109,521 | cumulative net release +$205,262
M12: activity 11,000 | no-action cost $929,560 | managed cost $819,495 | gross release $110,065 | cumulative net release +$315,326
METHOD STATUS
Management-entered assumptions. The observed analysis separates Period A to Period B operating-cost movement into activity-supported movement and cost creep. The forward case decomposes Period B cost into a management-entered fixed committed share and an implied variable cost rate. Activity grows linearly to the entered end-of-horizon growth rate. The no-action variable cost rate phases in the entered annual inflation rate while the fixed monthly commitment remains unchanged. The managed variable cost-rate reduction phases in from the entered start month through full realization. The fixed-cost release phases in independently from its entered start month through full realization. Gross operating-cost release equals no-action cost less managed cost. The one-time reset cost is charged when the variable reset begins. No external fixed-cost share, cost inflation, efficiency, cost-release, or transition-cost benchmark is used.